鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔演讲全文

专题：聚焦杰克逊霍尔各人央行年会

　　开头：智堡Mikko　

　　好意思联储主席鲍威尔22日上昼在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的好意思联储年度研讨会上发表了年度谈话。

　　以下为演讲全文

　　Over the course of this year， the U.S． economy has shown resilience in a context of sweeping changes in economic policy． In terms of the Fed‘s dual-mandate goals， the labor market remains near maximum employment， and inflation， though still somewhat elevated， has come down a great deal from its post-pandemic highs． At the same time， the balance of risks appears to be shifting．

　　本年以来，在经济战术发生闲居变化的配景下，好意思国经济展现出了韧性。就好意思联储的双重职业处所而言，劳能源市集仍接近充分办事状态，而通货扩张虽仍有些偏高，但已从疫情后的高点大幅回落。与此同期，风险的均衡似乎正在转化。

　　In my remarks today， I will first address the current economic situation and the near-term outlook for monetary policy． I will then turn to the results of our second public review of our monetary policy framework， as captured in the revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy that we released today．

　　在我今天的谈话中，我将启航点谈谈面前的经济神气和货币战术的近期瞻望。然后，我将转向咱们今天发布的、经更正的《耐久处所与货币战术策略声明》中所体现的、咱们第二劣货币战术框架公开评估的收尾。

　　Current Economic Conditions and Near-Term Outlook

　　面前经济景象与近期瞻望

　　When I appeared at this podium one year ago， the economy was at an inflection point． Our policy rate had stood at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent for more than a year． That restrictive policy stance was appropriate to help bring down inflation and to foster a sustainable balance between aggregate demand and supply． Inflation had moved much closer to our objective， and the labor market had cooled from its formerly overheated state． Upside risks to inflation had diminished． But the unemployment rate had increased by almost a full percentage point， a development that historically has not occurred outside of recessions． Over the subsequent three Federal Open Market Committee （FOMC） meetings， we recalibrated our policy stance， setting the stage for the labor market to remain in balance near maximum employment over the past year （figure 1）．

　　一年前我站上这个讲台时，经济正处于一个转换点。咱们的战术利率已在5.25%至5.5%的水平上看护了一年多。这种规矩性的战术态度是适当的，有助于裁汰通胀并促进总需求与总供给之间达成可抓续的均衡。通胀已相配接近咱们的处所，劳能源市集也已从先前过热的状态降温。通胀的上行风险还是放松。但休闲率上升了近一个百分点，这种情况在历史上除了零落时期外从未发生过。在随后的三次联邦公开市集委员会（FOMC）会议上，咱们从头校准了咱们的战术态度，为以前一年劳能源市集在接近充分办事的水平上保抓均衡奠定了基础（图1）。

　　This year， the economy has faced new challenges． Significantly higher tariffs across our trading partners are remaking the global trading system． Tighter immigration policy has led to an abrupt slowdown in labor force growth． Over the longer run， changes in tax， spending， and regulatory policies may also have important implications for economic growth and productivity． There is significant uncertainty about where all of these polices will eventually settle and what their lasting effects on the economy will be．

　　本年，经济濒临着新的挑战。咱们生意伙伴间大幅提升的关税正在重塑各人生意体系。更紧的侨民战术导致了劳能源增长的短暂放缓。从更永远来看，税收、支拨和监管战术的变化也可能对经济增长和出产率产生紧迫影响。系数这些战术最终将走向何方，以及它们对经济的抓久影响将是什么，皆存在着巨大的不细目性。

　　Changes in trade and immigration policies are affecting both demand and supply． In this environment， distinguishing cyclical developments from trend， or structural， developments is difficult． This distinction is critical because monetary policy can work to stabilize cyclical fluctuations but can do little to alter structural changes．

　　生意和侨民战术的变化正在同期影响需乞降供给。在这种环境下，分手周期性发展与趋势性（或结构性）发展是勤劳的。这一分手至关紧迫，因为货币战术不错努力褂讪周期性波动，但对改革结构性变化窝囊为力。

　　The labor market is a case in point． The July employment report released earlier this month showed that payroll job growth slowed to an average pace of only 35，000 per month over the past three months， down from 168，000 per month during 2024 （figure 2）． This slowdown is much larger than assessed just a month ago， as the earlier figures for May and June were revised down substantially． But it does not appear that the slowdown in job growth has opened up a large margin of slack in the labor market--an outcome we want to avoid． The unemployment rate， while edging up in July， stands at a historically low level of 4.2 percent and has been broadly stable over the past year． Other indicators of labor market conditions are also little changed or have softened only modestly， including quits， layoffs， the ratio of vacancies to unemployment， and nominal wage growth． Labor supply has softened in line with demand， sharply lowering the “breakeven” rate of job creation needed to hold the unemployment rate constant． Indeed， labor force growth has slowed considerably this year with the sharp falloff in immigration， and the labor force participation rate has edged down in recent months．

　　劳能源市集等于一个很好的例子。本月早些时候发布的7月份办事叙述自大，以前三个月平均每月新增办事岗亭放缓至仅3.5万个，低于2024年时间的每月16.8万个（图2）。这一放缓幅度深广于仅一个月前的评估，因为5月和6月的早期数据被大幅下修。但这似乎并未导致劳能源市集出现咱们但愿幸免的无数松懈。休闲率虽在7月份略有上升，但仍处于4.2%的历史低位，并在以前一年中基本保抓褂讪。其他劳能源市集景象方针也变化不大或仅祥和走软，包括去职、裁人、职位空白与休闲东谈主数之比以及口头工资增长。劳能源供汲取需求同步走软，大幅裁汰了看护休闲率不变所需的“盈亏均衡”办事创造率。事实上，跟着侨民数目的急剧下落，本年的劳能源增长已显耀放缓，劳能源参与率在近几个月也有所下落。

　　Overall， while the labor market appears to be in balance， it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers． This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising． And if those risks materialize， they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment．

　　总体而言，天然劳能源市集看似处于均衡状态，但这是一种由劳能源供给和需求双双显耀放缓所导致的奇特均衡状态。这种不寻常的情况标明，办事的下行风险正在上升。而如若这些风险成为现实，它们可能以裁人急剧加多和休闲率上升的体式连忙表现。

　　At the same time， GDP growth has slowed notably in the first half of this year to a pace of 1.2 percent， roughly half the 2.5 percent pace in 2024 （figure 3）． The decline in growth has largely reflected a slowdown in consumer spending． As with the labor market， some of the slowing in GDP likely reflects slower growth of supply or potential output．

　　与此同期，本年上半年GDP增长已显耀放缓至1.2%的水平，约为2024年2.5%增速的一半（图3）。增长的下滑主要响应了破钞支拨的放缓。与劳能源市集同样，GDP的部分放缓可能响应了供给或潜在产出增长的放缓。

　　Turning to inflation， higher tariffs have begun to push up prices in some categories of goods． Estimates based on the latest available data indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.6 percent over the 12 months ending in July． Excluding the volatile food and energy categories， core PCE prices rose 2.9 percent， above their level a year ago． Within core， prices of goods increased 1.1 percent over the past 12 months， a notable shift from the modest decline seen over the course of 2024． In contrast， housing services inflation remains on a downward trend， and nonhousing services inflation is still running at a level a bit above what has been historically consistent with 2 percent inflation （figure 4）．

　　转向通胀方面，更高的关税已运转推高某些类别商品的价钱。基于最新可用数据的臆想自大，在收尾7月的12个月里，总体PCE价钱上升了2.6%。剔除波动的食物和能源类别后，中枢PCE价钱上升了2.9%，高于一年前的水平。在中枢通胀里面，以前12个月商品价钱上升了1.1%，这与2024年时间出现的祥和下落比较是一个显耀的转化。比较之下，住房服务通胀仍处于下落趋势，而非住房服务通胀的运行水平仍略高于历史上与2%通胀相符的水平（图4）。

　　The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible． We expect those effects to accumulate over coming months， with high uncertainty about timing and amounts． The question that matters for monetary policy is whether these price increases are likely to materially raise the risk of an ongoing inflation problem． A reasonable base case is that the effects will be relatively short lived--a one-time shift in the price level． Of course， “one-time” does not mean “all at once．” It will continue to take time for tariff increases to work their way through supply chains and distribution networks． Moreover， tariff rates continue to evolve， potentially prolonging the adjustment process．

　　关税抵破钞价钱的影响目下已通晓可见。咱们预计这些影响将在畴昔几个月内积累，但其时辰和幅度存在高度不细目性。对货币战术而言，紧迫的问题是，这些价钱上升是否可能执行性地加多抓续性通胀问题的风险。一个合理的基准情景是，其影响将是相对顷然的——即物价水平的一次性变动。天然，“一次性”并不料味着“一次完成”。关税上调需要时辰才气传导至通盘供应链和分销聚积。此外，关税税率仍在络续变化，可能会延伸调治历程。

　　It is also possible， however， that the upward pressure on prices from tariffs could spur a more lasting inflation dynamic， and that is a risk to be assessed and managed． One possibility is that workers， who see their real incomes decline because of higher prices， demand and get higher wages from employers， setting off adverse wage--price dynamics． Given that the labor market is not particularly tight and faces increasing downside risks， that outcome does not seem likely．

　　然而，关税带来的价钱上行压力也有可能激励更抓久的通胀动态，这是一个需要评估和贬责的风险。一种可能性是，因物价上升而执行收入下落的工东谈主，向老板残酷并得回了更高的工资要求，从而激励不利的工资-物价动态。鉴于劳能源市集并非终点病笃且濒临日益加多的下行风险，这种收尾似乎不太可能发生。

　　Another possibility is that inflation expectations could move up， dragging actual inflation with them． Inflation has been above our target for more than four years and remains a prominent concern for households and businesses． Measures of longer-term inflation expectations， however， as reflected in market- and survey-based measures， appear to remain well anchored and consistent with our longer-run inflation objective of 2 percent．

　　另一种可能性是通胀预期可能上升，并带动执行通胀随之上行。通胀已衔接四年多高于咱们的处所，而且仍然是家庭和企业的一个超越担忧。然而，从基于市集和走访的方针来看，耐久通胀预期似乎仍保抓细腻锚定，并与咱们2%的耐久通胀处所相符。

　　Of course， we cannot take the stability of inflation expectations for granted． Come what may， we will not allow a one-time increase in the price level to become an ongoing inflation problem．

　　天然，咱们不行想天然地以为通胀预期会保抓褂讪。非论发生什么，咱们皆不会允许物价水平的一次性上升演酿成一个抓续的通胀问题。

　　Putting the pieces together， what are the implications for monetary policy？ In the near term， risks to inflation are tilted to the upside， and risks to employment to the downside--a challenging situation． When our goals are in tension like this， our framework calls for us to balance both sides of our dual mandate． Our policy rate is now 100 basis points closer to neutral than it was a year ago， and the stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance． Nonetheless， with policy in restrictive territory， the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance．

　　轮廓来看，这对货币战术有何启示？在短期内，通胀风险偏进取行，而办事风险偏向下行——这是一个充满挑战的场面。当咱们的处所像这么处于病笃规划时，咱们的框架要求咱们在双重职业的两方面进行均衡。咱们的战术利率目下比一年前离中性水平近了100个基点，而休闲率和其他劳能源市集方针的褂讪性使咱们大要在探讨改革战术态度时审慎行事。尽管如斯，在战术处于规矩性区域的情况下，基线出路和络续变化的风险均衡可能需要咱们调治战术态度。

　　Monetary policy is not on a preset course． FOMC members will make these decisions， based solely on their assessment of the data and its implications for the economic outlook and the balance ofrisks． We will never deviate from that approach．

　　货币战术莫得预设的旅途。联邦公开市集委员会的成员将仅把柄他们对数据偏执对经济出路和风险均衡影响的评估来作念出这些决定。咱们始终不会偏离这一法子。

　　Evolution of Monetary Policy Framework

　　货币战术框架的演变

　　Turning to my second topic， our monetary policy framework is built on the unchanging foundation of our mandate from Congress to foster maximum employment and stable prices for the American people． We remain fully committed to fulfilling our statutory mandate， and the revisions to our framework will support that mission across a broad range of economic conditions． Our revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy， which we refer to as our consensus statement， describes how we pursue our dual-mandate goals． It is designed to give the public a clear sense of how we think about monetary policy， and that understanding is important both for transparency and accountability， and for making monetary policy more effective．

　　转向我的第二个主题，咱们的货币战术框架拓荒在国会授予咱们的、为好意思国东谈主民促进充分办事和褂讪物价这一不变的职业基础之上。咱们仍然实足勤恳于实行咱们的法定职业，对咱们框架的更正将在闲居的经济要求下撑抓这一职业。咱们经更正的《耐久处所与货币战术策略声明》，咱们称之为共鸣声明，描摹了咱们若何追求咱们的双重职业处所。它旨在让公众了了地了解咱们若何想考货币战术，而这种通晓对于透明度和问责制，以及使货币战术更灵验皆至关紧迫。

　　The changes we made in this review are a natural progression， grounded in our ever-evolving understanding of our economy． We continue to build upon the initial consensus statement adopted in 2012 under Chair Ben Bernanke‘s leadership． Today’s revised statement is the outcome of the second public review of our framework， which we conduct at five-year intervals．  This year‘s review included three elements： Fed Listens events at Reserve Banks around the country， a flagship research conference， and policymaker discussions and deliberations， supported by staff analysis， at a series of FOMC meetings．

　　咱们在这次评估中所作念的改革是一个天然的演进历程，植根于咱们对经济络续深刻的通晓。咱们链接在2012年本·伯南克主席引导下通过的率先共鸣声明的基础上发展。今天经更正的声明是咱们框架第二次公开评估的恶果，咱们每五年进行一次评估。本年的评估包括三个要素：在寰球各储备银行举行的“好意思联储在倾听”（Fed Listens）动作，一次旗舰有计划会议，以及在一系列FOMC会议上由职业主谈主员分析撑抓的方案者征询和审议。

　　In approaching this year‘s review， a key objective has been to make sure that our framework is suitable across a broad range of economic conditions． At the same time， the framework needs to evolve with changes in the structure of the economy and our understanding of those changes． The Great Depression presented different challenges from those of the Great Inflation and the Great Moderation， which in turn are different from the ones we face today．

　　在进行本年的评估时，一个要道处所是确保咱们的框架适用于闲居的经济要求。与此同期，框架需要跟着经济结构的变化以及咱们对这些变化的通晓而演变。大荒僻残酷的挑战不同于大通胀和大纰漏时期的挑战，而这些又与咱们今天濒临的挑战不同。

　　At the time of the last review， we were living in a new normal， characterized by the proximity of interest rates to the effective lower bound （ELB）， along with low growth， low inflation， and a very flat Phillips curve--meaning that inflation was not very responsive to slack in the economy． To me， a statistic that captures that era is that our policy rate was stuck at the ELB for seven long years following the onset of the Global Financial Crisis （GFC） in late 2008． Many here will recall the sluggish growth and painfully slow recovery of that era． It appeared highly likely that if the economy experienced even a mild downturn， our policy rate would be back at the ELB very quickly， probably for another extended period． Inflation and inflation expectations could then decline in a weak economy， raising real interest rates as nominal rates were pinned near zero． Higher real rates would further weigh on job growth and reinforce the downward pressure on inflation and inflation expectations， triggering an adverse dynamic．

　　在上一次评估时，咱们糊口在一个新常态中，其特色是利率接近灵验利率下限（ELB），同期伴跟着低增长、低通胀和一条相配平坦的菲利普斯弧线——这意味着通胀对经济中的松懈反应不聪惠。对我而言，一个能捕捉阿谁期间特征的统计数据是，自2008年末各人金融危急（GFC）爆发后，咱们的战术利率在灵验利率下限上停留了长达七年之久。在座的好多东谈主皆会谨记阿谁期间增长乏力和复苏极其迟缓的横祸。其时看来，极有可能的情况是，即使经济履历一次祥和的零落，咱们的战术利率也会很快回到灵验利率下限，并可能再次停留很长一段时辰。届时，通胀和通胀预期可能在疲弱的经济中下落，在口头利率被钉在近零水平的情况下推高执行利率。更高的执行利率会进一步拖累办事增长，并加重通胀和通胀预期的下行压力，从而激励一种不利的动态。

　　The economic conditions that brought the policy rate to the ELB and drove the 2020 framework changes were thought to be rooted in slow-moving global factors that would persist for an extended period--and might well have done so， if not for the pandemic． The 2020 consensus statement included several features that addressed the ELB-related risks that had become increasingly prominent over the preceding two decades． We emphasized the importance of anchored longer-term inflation expectations to support both our price-stability and maximum-employment goals． Drawing on an extensive literature on strategies to mitigate risks associated with the ELB， we adopted flexible average inflation targeting--a “makeup” strategy to ensure that inflation expectations would remain well anchored even with the ELB constraint． In particular， we said that， following periods when inflation had been running persistently below 2 percent， appropriate monetary policy would likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time．

　　那些将战术利率推至灵验利率下限并股东2020年框架变革的经济景象，被以为根植于迟缓变化的各人性要素，这些要素将抓续很长一段时辰——如若不是因为疫情，它们很可能照实如斯。2020年的共鸣声明包含了几个派遣以前二十年日益超越的、与灵验利率下限规划风险的特征。咱们强调了锚定耐久通胀预期对于撑抓咱们价钱褂讪和充分办事双重处所的紧迫性。模仿无数对于减轻灵验利率下限规划风险策略的文献，咱们遴荐了活泼体式的平均通胀处所制——一种“弥补”策略，以确保即使在灵验利率下限的握住下，通胀预期也能保抓细腻锚定。具体来说，咱们暗示，在通胀抓续低于2%的时期事后，适当的货币战术可能会在一段时辰内旨在罢了规矩高于2%的通胀。

　　In the event， rather than low inflation and the ELB， the post-pandemic reopening brought the highest inflation in 40 years to economies around the world． Like most other central banks and private-sector analysts， through year-end 2021 we thought that inflation would subside fairly quickly without a sharp tightening in our policy stance （figure 5）． When it became clear that this was not the case， we responded forcefully， raising our policy rate by 5.25 percentage points over 16 months． That action， combined with the unwinding of pandemic supply disruptions， contributed to inflation moving much closer to our target without the painful rise in unemployment that has accompanied previous efforts to counter high inflation．

　　收尾，后疫情时期的从头绽放带来的不是低通胀和灵验利率下限，而是各人经济体40年来最高的通胀。像大多数其他央行和私营部门分析师同样，直到2021年底，咱们皆以为通胀会在莫得咱们大幅收紧战术态度的情况下额外快地消退（图5）。当情况变得清朗并非如斯时，咱们作念出了强有劲的回话，在16个月内将咱们的战术利率提升了5.25个百分点。这一滑动，加上疫情时间供应中断的缓解，促使通胀在莫得随同以往抵拒高通胀时出现的横祸的休闲率上升的情况下，更接近咱们的处所。

　　Elements of the Revised Consensus Statement

　　经更正的共鸣声明的要素

　　This year‘s review considered how economic conditions have evolved over the past five years． During this period， we saw that the inflation situation can change rapidly in the face of large shocks． In addition， interest rates are now substantially higher than was the case during the era between the GFC and the pandemic． With inflation above target， our policy rate is restrictive--modestly so， in my view． We cannot say for certain where rates will settle out over the longer run， but their neutral level may now be higher than during the 2010s， reflecting changes in productivity， demographics， fiscal policy， and other factors that affect the balance between saving and investment （figure 6）． During the review， we discussed how the 2020 statement’s focus on the ELB may have complicated communications about our response to high inflation． We concluded that the emphasis on an overly specific set of economic conditions may have led to some confusion， and， as a result， we made several important changes to the consensus statement to reflect that insight．

　　本年的评估探讨了以前五年经济景象的演变。在此时间，咱们看到在巨大冲击面前，通胀神气不错连忙改革。此外，目下的利率水平远高于各人金融危急与疫情之间时期的水平。在通胀高于处所的情况下，咱们的战术利率是规矩性的——在我看来，是祥和的规矩性。咱们无法细目利率在耐久内将褂讪在那处，但其中性水平目下可能高于2010年代，这响应了出产率、东谈主口结构、财政战术以偏执他影响储蓄与投资均衡要素的变化（图6）。在评估时间，咱们征询了2020年声明对灵验利率下限的眷注，可能若何使咱们对高通胀回话的换取变得复杂。咱们得出论断，对一套过于特定的经济要求的强调可能导致了一些困惑，因此，咱们对共鸣声明作念出了几项紧迫修改以响应这一意见。

　　First， we removed language indicating that the ELB was a defining feature of the economic landscape． Instead， we noted that our “monetary policy strategy is designed to promote maximum employment and stable prices across a broad range of economic conditions．” The difficulty of operating near the ELB remains a potential concern， but it is not our primary focus． The revised statement reiterates that the Committee is prepared to use its full range of tools to achieve its maximum-employment and price-stability goals， particularly if the federal funds rate is constrained by the ELB．

　　启航点，咱们删除了标明灵验利率下限是经济样式决定性特征的措辞。相背，咱们指出，咱们的“货币战术策略旨在在闲居的经济要求下促进充分办事和褂讪物价”。在灵验利率下限近邻操作的勤劳仍然是一个潜在的担忧，但它不是咱们的主要焦点。经更正的声明重申，委员会准备好使用其一齐用具来罢了其充分办事和价钱褂讪的处所，终点是在联邦基金利率受到灵验利率下限握住的情况下。

　　Second， we returned to a framework of flexible inflation targeting and eliminated the “makeup” strategy． As it turned out， the idea of an intentional， moderate inflation overshoot had proved irrelevant． There was nothing intentional or moderate about the inflation that arrived a few months after we announced our 2020 changes to the consensus statement， as I acknowledged publicly in 2021．

　　其次，咱们回想了活泼通胀处所制的框架，并取消了“弥补”策略。事实确认注解，有益让通胀规矩超调的想法已变得卑不足谈。在咱们晓示2020年共鸣声明修改后的几个月里到来的通胀，既非有益也非规矩，这少许我已在2021年公开承认。

　　Well-anchored inflation expectations were critical to our success in bringing down inflation without a sharp increase in unemployment． Anchored expectations promote the return of inflation to target when adverse shocks drive inflation higher， and limit the risk of deflation when the economy weakens． Further， they allow monetary policy to support maximum employment in economic downturns without compromising price stability． Our revised statement emphasizes our commitment to act forcefully to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored， to the benefit of both sides of our dual mandate． It also notes that “price stability is essential for a sound and stable economy and supports the well-being of all Americans．” This theme came through loud and clear at our Fed Listens events． The past five years have been a painful reminder of the hardship that high inflation imposes， especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of necessities．

　　细腻锚定的通胀预期对于咱们在莫得导致休闲率急剧上升的情况下生效裁汰通胀至关紧迫。锚定的预期在不利冲击推高通胀时能促进通胀回想处所，并在经济疲软时规矩通缩风险。此外，它们允许货币战术在经济零落时撑抓充分办事而不毁伤价钱褂讪。咱们经更正的声明强调，咱们勤恳于采用有劲步履，确保耐久通胀预期保抓细腻锚定，以利于咱们双重职业的两方面。声明还指出，“价钱褂讪是健全褂讪经济的基础，并撑抓系数好意思国东谈主的福祉。”这一主题在咱们的“好意思联储在倾听”动作中得到了响亮而通晓的体现。以前五年横祸地提示咱们，高通胀带来的勤劳，终点是对那些最无力承担必需品更高老本的东谈主们。

　　Third， our 2020 statement said that we would mitigate “shortfalls，” rather than “deviations，” from maximum employment． The use of “shortfalls” reflected the insight that our real-time assessments of the natural rate of unemployment--and hence of “maximum employment”--are highly uncertain． The later years of the post-GFC recovery featured employment running for an extended period above mainstream estimates of its sustainable level， along with inflation running persistently below our 2 percent target． In the absence of inflationary pressures， it might not be necessary to tighten policy based solely on uncertain real-time estimates of the natural rate of unemployment．

　　第三，咱们2020年的声明称，咱们将勤恳于减轻与充分办事之间的“不及”（shortfalls），而非“偏离”（deviations）。使用“不及”一词响应了这么一种意见，即咱们对天然休闲率——也等于“充分办事”——的及时评估是高度不细办法。在各人金融危急后复苏的后期，办事在很长一段时辰内皆高于主流对其可抓续水平的臆想，而通胀则抓续低于咱们2%的处所。在莫得通胀压力的情况下，可能莫得必要只是基于不细办法天然休闲率及时臆想来收紧战术。

　　We still have that view， but our use of the term “shortfalls” was not always interpreted as intended， raising communications challenges． In particular， the use of “shortfalls” was not intended as a commitment to permanently forswear preemption or to ignore labor market tightness． Accordingly， we removed “shortfalls” from our statement． Instead， the revised document now states more precisely that “the Committee recognizes that employment may at times run above real-time assessments of maximum employment without necessarily creating risks to price stability．” Of course， preemptive action would likely be warranted if tightness in the labor market or other factors pose risks to price stability．

　　咱们仍然抓有这一不雅点，但咱们对“不及”一词的使用并未总能按预期被解读，从而带来了换取上的挑战。终点是，使用“不及”一词并非意在本旨永久废弃先下手为强的步履或忽视劳能源市集的病笃景象。因此，咱们从声明中删除了“不及”一词。相背，经更正的文献目下更精确地指出，“委员会意志到，办事偶然可能会高于对充分办事的及时评估，而无须然对价钱褂讪组成风险。”天然，如若劳能源市集的病笃或其他要素对价钱褂讪组成风险，采用先下手为强的步履可能是必要的。

　　The revised statement also notes that maximum employment is “the highest level of employment that can be achieved on a sustained basis in a context of price stability．” This focus on promoting a strong labor market underscores the principle that “durably achieving maximum employment fosters broad-based economic opportunities and benefits for all Americans．” The feedback we received at Fed Listens events reinforced the value of a strong labor market for American households， employers， and communities．

　　经更正的声明还指出，充分办事是“在价钱褂讪的配景下不错抓续罢了的最高办事水平”。这种对促进强盛劳能源市集的眷注，强调了“抓久地罢了充分办事能为系数好意思国东谈主带来基础闲居的经济契机和利益”的原则。咱们在“好意思联储在倾听”动作中收到的反馈，强化了强盛劳能源市集对好意思国度庭、老板和社区的价值。

　　Fourth， consistent with the removal of “shortfalls，” we made changes to clarify our approach in periods when our employment and inflation objectives are not complementary． In those circumstances， we will follow a balanced approach in promoting them． The revised statement now more closely aligns with the original 2012 language． We take into account the extent of departures from our goals and the potentially different time horizons over which each is projected to return to a level consistent with our dual mandate． These principles guide our policy decisions today， as they did over the 2022--24 period， when the departure from our 2 percent inflation target was the overriding concern．

　　第四，与删除“不及”一词相一致，咱们作念出了修改，以发达在咱们的办事和通胀处所不互补的时期咱们的法子。在这些情况下，咱们将采用一种均衡的法子来促进它们。经更正的声明目下与2012年的原始措辞更为一致。咱们会探讨偏离咱们处所的进度，以及预计每个处所回想到与咱们双重职业相符水平的可能不同时间跨度。这些原则率领着咱们今天的战术决定，就像它们在2022-24年时间率领咱们同样，其时偏离咱们2%通胀处所是压倒一切的担忧。

　　In addition to these changes， there is a great deal of continuity with past statements． The document continues to explain how we interpret the mandate Congress has given us and describes the policy framework that we believe will best promote maximum employment and price stability． We continue to believe that monetary policy must be forward looking and consider the lags in its effects on the economy． For this reason， our policy actions depend on the economic outlook and the balance of risks to that outlook． We continue to believe that setting a numerical goal for employment is unwise， because the maximum level of employment is not directly measurable and changes over time for reasons unrelated to monetary policy．

　　除了这些变化，与以前的声明也有很大的衔接性。该文献链接解释咱们若何解读国会赋予咱们的职业，并描摹咱们以为将最佳地促进充分办事和价钱褂讪的战术框架。咱们链接以为，货币战术必须是前瞻性的，并探讨其对经济影响的时滞。因此，咱们的战术步履取决于经济出路以及该出路濒临的风险均衡。咱们链接以为，为办事设定一个数字处所是不理智的，因为充分办事的水平无法径直掂量，而且会因与货币战术无关的原因随时辰变化。

　　We also continue to view a longer-run inflation rate of 2 percent as most consistent with our dual-mandate goals． We believe that our commitment to this target is a key factor helping keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored． Experience has shown that 2 percent inflation is low enough to ensure that inflation is not a concern in household and business decisionmaking while also providing a central bank with some policy flexibility to provide accommodation during economic downturns．

　　咱们也链接以为，2%的耐久通胀率最适当咱们的双重职业处所。咱们坚信，咱们对这一处所的本旨是匡助保抓耐久通胀预期细腻锚定的一个要道要素。申饬标明，2%的通胀率弥散低，不错确保通胀不会成为家庭和企业方案中的一个担忧，同期也为央行在经济零落时间提供宽松战术提供了一些活泼性。

　　Finally， the revised consensus statement retained our commitment to conduct a public review roughly every five years． There is nothing magic about a five-year pace． That frequency allows policymakers to reassess structural features of the economy and to engage with the public， practitioners， and academics on the performance of our framework． It is also consistent with several global peers．

　　临了，经更正的共鸣声明保留了咱们约莫每五年进行一次公开评估的本旨。五年这个节拍并莫得什么神奇之处。这个频率允许方案者从头评估经济的结构性特征，并与公众、从业者和学者就咱们框架的阐扬进行交流。这也与几个各人同业的作念法相一致。

　　Conclusion

　　论断

　　In closing， I want to thank President Schmid and all his staff who work so diligently to host this outstanding event annually． Counting a couple of virtual appearances during the pandemic， this is the eighth time I have had the honor to speak from this podium． Each year， this symposium offers the opportunity for Federal Reserve leaders to hear ideas from leading economic thinkers and focus on the challenges we face． The Kansas City Fed was wise to lure Chair Volcker to this national park more than 40 years ago， and I am proud to be part of that tradition．

　　临了，我要感谢施密德主席和他系数勤苦职业以每年举办这一超越动作的职业主谈主员。算上疫情时间的几次线上出头，这已是我第八次有幸在这个讲台上发言。每年，这个研讨会皆为好意思联储的引导者们提供契机，听取顶尖经济想想家的想法，并专注于咱们濒临的挑战。四十多年前，堪萨斯城联储将沃尔克主席勾引到这个国度公园是理智之举，我很骄傲能成为这一传统的一部分。

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